Monday, 24 April 2017

"Hiatus": Signal and Variability

Stefan Rahmstorf, Grant Foster and Niamh Cahill just summarized the statistical evidence for the mirage people call the "pause" of global warming in their new article: "Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls."

The Open Access paper is clearly written; any natural scientist should be able to follow the arguments. The most important part may be a clear explanation of the statistical fallacies that lead some people to falsely claim there was such a thing as a "hiatus" or "slowdown".




Suppose that Einstein had stood up and said: I have worked very hard and I have discovered that Newton got everything right and I have nothing to add. Would anyone ever know who Einstein was? ... The idea that we would not want to be Einstein, if we could overturn global warming ... how exiting would that be? Of the tenth of thousands of scientists there is not one who has the ego to do that? It's absurd, it is absolutely unequivocally absurd! We are people.


I have studied the "hiatus" problem hard (1, 2, 3, 4), read this new paper and I have nothing to add. Unfortunately.





Well, okay, maybe one thing. Just because a trend change is not statistically significant, does not mean you cannot study why it changed. It only means that you are likely looking at noise and thus likely will not find a reason. But if you think there may be a great reward in the result that can make high-risk research worthwhile. Looking at how small the trend differences are and knowing how uncertain short-term trends are, I am not going to do it, but anyone else is welcome.





That there was no decline in the long-term trends also does not mean that it is not interesting to study the noise around this trend. The biggest group in the World Climate Research Program studies Climate variability. That by itself shows how important it is.

This blog is called Variable Variability. I love variability. It is an intrinsic property of complex systems and its behaviour over temporal and spatial averaging scales can tell us a lot about the climate system. It also has large impacts. Droughts and floods fuelled by El Nino are just one example. It is a pity most people just want to average this away.


One man's noise may be another man's music


Now that we take the climate system into unknown territories predictions of the seasonal, annual and decadal variability have become even more important to plan ahead and protect communities. Historian Sam White suggests that the problem of the little ice age in Europe was not the cold winters, but the unpredictability of the weather. Better predictions will help a lot in coping with climate change and already produce useful results for the tropics.

Variability lovers of the world, let's stand up for the importance of our work and not try to faithlessly justify it with middle of the road research on overstudied averages.




Related reading

Cranberry picking short-term temperature trends

Statistically significant trends - Short-term temperature trend are more uncertain than you probably think

How can the pause be both ‘false’ and caused by something?

Atmospheric warming hiatus: The peculiar debate about the 2% of the 2%

Reference

Rahmstorf, Stefan, Grant Foster and Niamh Cahill, 2017: Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls. Environmental Research Letters, 12, No. 5, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6825.

Monday, 10 April 2017

Upcoming meetings for homogenisation scientists

There are several new meetings coming up that may be interesting for people working on homogenisation. If you know of more, please write a comment. Please note that the abstract submission deadline for EMS is already in 11 days.

Urban climate summer school
21-26 August 2017 | Bucharest, Romania. Registration deadline: 15 May 2017
Climate monitoring; data rescue, management, quality and homogenization
4–8 September 2017 | Dublin, Ireland. Abstract deadline: 21 April 2017.
11th EUMETNET Data Management Workshop
18–20 October 2017 | Zagreb, Croatia. Abstracts deadline: 31 May 2017
C3S Data Rescue Service Capacity Building and 10th ACRE Workshops
4-8 December 2017 | Auckland, New Zealand.
Workshop - Data Management for Climate Services
April 2018 | Lima, Peru.




Climate monitoring; data rescue, management, quality and homogenization

EMS Annual Meeting: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2017 | 4–8 September 2017 | Dublin, Ireland
The abstract submission deadline: 21st April 2017.

OSA3.1. Climate monitoring; data rescue, management, quality and homogenization
Convener: Manola Brunet-India
Co-Conveners: Ingeborg Auer, Dan Hollis, Victor Venema

Robust and reliable climatic studies, particularly those assessments dealing with climate variability and change, greatly depend on availability and accessibility to high-quality/high-resolution and long-term instrumental climate data. At present, a restricted availability and accessibility to long-term and high-quality climate records and datasets is still limiting our ability to better understand, detect, predict and respond to climate variability and change at lower spatial scales than global. In addition, the need for providing reliable, opportune and timely climate services deeply relies on the availability and accessibility to high-quality and high-resolution climate data, which also requires further research and innovative applications in the areas of data rescue techniques and procedures, data management systems, climate monitoring, climate time-series quality control and homogenisation.

In this session, we welcome contributions (oral and poster) in the following major topics:
  • Climate monitoring , including early warning systems and improvements in the quality of the observational meteorological networks
  • More efficient transfer of the data rescued into the digital format by means of improving the current state-of-the-art on image enhancement, image segmentation and post-correction techniques, innovating on adaptive Optical Character Recognition and Speech Recognition technologies and their application to transfer data, defining best practices about the operational context for digitisation, improving techniques for inventorying, organising, identifying and validating the data rescued, exploring crowd-sourcing approaches or engaging citizen scientist volunteers, conserving, imaging, inventorying and archiving historical documents containing weather records
  • Climate data and metadata processing, including climate data flow management systems, from improved database models to better data extraction, development of relational metadata databases and data exchange platforms and networks interoperability
  • Innovative, improved and extended climate data quality controls (QC), including both near real-time and time-series QCs: from gross-errors and tolerance checks to temporal and spatial coherence tests, statistical derivation and machine learning of QC rules, and extending tailored QC application to monthly, daily and sub-daily data and to all essential climate variables
  • Improvements to the current state-of-the-art of climate data homogeneity and homogenisation methods, including methods intercomparison and evaluation, along with other topics such as climate time-series inhomogeneities detection and correction techniques/algorithms, using parallel measurements to study inhomogeneities and extending approaches to detect/adjust monthly and, especially, daily and sub-daily time-series and to homogenise all essential climate variables
  • Fostering evaluation of the uncertainty budget in reconstructed time-series, including the influence of the various data processes steps, and analytical work and numerical estimates using realistic benchmarking datasets


Related are the sessions: Metrology for meteorology and climate and Climate change detection, assessment of trends, variability and extremes.





Urban climate summer school


University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
August 21-26, 2017
Registration deadline: 15 May 2017

Organizers : Research Institute of University of Bucharest (ICUB), Urban Climate Research Center at Arizona State University (ASU), Urban Water Innovation Network (ASU-CSU), Society for Urban Ecology (SURE), Interdisciplinary Center of Advanced Research on Territorial Dynamics (CICADIT)

Rationale and goals : Urban areas impart significant local to regional scale environmental perturbation. Urban-induced effects, simultaneously with impacts owing to long-lived emissions of greenhouse gases, may trigger additional physical and socioeconomic consequences that affect the livelihoods of urban dwellers. While urban areas amass more than 50% of the world population, and three of four Europeans live in a city, the systematic monitoring and assessment of urban climates, mitigation of and adaptation to adverse effects, and the strategic prioritization of potential solutions may enable enhanced preparedness of populations and local authorities. Such challenges call for enduring scientific advancements, improved training and increased awareness of topical issues.

This summer school aims to provide structured information and skill-building capabilities related to climate change challenges in urban areas, with a primary focus of creating an active pool of young scientists that tackle the major sustainability challenges facing future generations. The critical areas to be covered refer to
(1) modern monitoring of urban environments
(2) modelling tools used in urban meteorology and climatology
(3) adaptation and mitigation strategies and their prioritization
(4) exploring critical linkages among environmental factors and emerging and chronic health threats and health disparities. Those attending can expect to gain an understanding of the state-of-the-art and be capable to use the most appropriate tools to address specific problems in their respective fields of interest.
The summer school is intended for doctoral and post-doctoral students who already have basic knowledge and interest for urban climate issues.

More information ...





11th EUMETNET Data Management Workshop

Zagreb, Croatia, 18 – 20 October 2017
More information will appear later on the homepage: http://meteo.hr/DMW_2017

Main Topics

  • Data rescue: investigation, cataloguing, digitization, imaging
  • Climate observations: standards and best practices, definition of climatological day, mean values
  • Metadata: WMO Information System (WIS), INSPIRE, climate networks rating guides
  • Quality control: automatic/manual of climate time-series, on-line data, real-time observations
  • Homogenisation of climate time-series from sub-daily to monthly scale, homogenisation methods, assessment of inhomogeneity
  • Archiving: retention periods, depository, climate service centres and data collections for scientific and public use, databases, data access, user interface, data distribution

Call for Abstracts

Presentations will be oral or posters. Abstracts should be written in English, short, clear, concise. Figures, tables, mathematical symbols and equations should not be included. Abstracts should be sent before May 31st 2017 and send to dmw2017@zamg.ac.at. Authors will be informed about the acceptance of their papers by the scientific committee early in September.

Conference Venue and Programme

The workshop will be held in the building of Croatian State Archives: Marulićev trg 21, Zagreb, Croatia.

Wednesday, October 18th 2017

08:30-09:30 registration
09:30-16:00 sessions
17:00 - guided tour, ice breaker

Thursday, October 19th 2017
09:00-17:00 sessions
19:00 workshop dinner

Friday, October 20th 2017
09:00-15:30 sessions

Further Information

Conference registration fee is 80 €. Details on registration procedures and the workshop in general will be available
on the website: meteo.hr/DMW_2017 (later)
Contact: dmw@cirus.dhz.hr

Scientific Organization

Ingeborg Auer (ZAMG)
Peer Hechler (WMO)
Dan Hollis (UKMO)
Yolanda Luna (AEMET)
Dubravka Rasol (DHMZ)
Ole Einar Tveito (MET Norway)





C3S Data Rescue Service Capacity Building and 10th ACRE Workshops


The C3S Data Rescue Service Capacity Building and 10th ACRE Workshops will be held at NIWA in Auckland, New Zealand during the week of the 4th-8th of December this year. There is no homepage on this meeting yet, but more information will follow later on: www.met-acre.net. This homepage also gives information on the previous annual ACRE workshops.





Workshop - Data Management for Climate Services

Taller – Gestión de Datos para los Servicios Climáticos

Location: Lima, Peru
Time: April 2018 (date to be defined)
Organized by: CLIMANDES - Climate services to support decision making in the Andes Supported by: Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Region: Ibero-American Countries
Duration: 3 days (9:00 a.m. - 5 p.m.)
Number of participants: 80 - 100

Introduction

The implementation of the WMO-led Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) strengthens the capabilities of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) through its five pillars (Observations and Monitoring; Capacity Development; User Interface Platform; Research, Modeling and Prediction; Climate Services Information System). In this context, SENAMHI and MeteoSwiss are developing the first workshop on "Data Management for Climate Services" focusing mainly on the first three of the mentioned pillars. The workshop will be carried out in Peru by members of the CLIMANDES project with the support of SDC and WMO.

The workshop "Data Management for Climate Services" is addressed towards both the technical and the academic community involved in the implementation of national climate services. The workshop focuses on sharing knowledge and experiences from the provision of high-quality climate services targeted at WMO's priority areas and their citizens. The methodologies will cover topics such as quality control, homogenization, gridded data, climate products, use of open source software, and will include practical examples of climate services implemented in the Ibero-American region. The workshop will contribute to the continuous improvement of technical and academic capacities by creating a regional and global network of professionals active in the generation of climate products and services.

Objectives

  • Strengthen data management systems for the provision of climate services.
  • Share advances in the implementation of climate services in the Ibero-American region.
  • Interchange with other NMHSs on best practices in climate methodologies and products.
  • Improve the regional and global collaborations of the NMHSs of the Ibero-American region.
  • Show the use of open-source software.

Outcome The following outcomes of the workshop are envisaged:
  • A final report providing a synthesis of the main results and recommendations resulting from the event.
  • The workshop builds the first platform to exchange technical and scientific knowhow in Ibero-America (WMO RA-III and IV), and among participants from all other regions.
  • Hence, the workshop contributes to the creation of a regional and global network in which knowhow, methodologies, and data are continuously shared.

Content

The workshop will consist of four sessions consisting of presentations, posters and open discussions on:

● Session 1:
  • Data rescue methods: methods for data rescue and cataloguing; data rescue projects
  • Metadata: methods of metadata rescue for the past and the present; systems for metadata storage; applications and use of metadata
  • Quality control methods: methods for quality control of different meteorological observations of different specifications; processes to establish operational quality control

● Session 2:
  • Homogenization: methods for the homogenization of monthly climate data; projects and results from homogenization projects; investigations on parallel climate observations; use of metadata for homogenization

● Session 3:
  • Gridded data: verification of gridded data based on observations; products based on gridded data; methods to produce gridded data; adjustments of gridded data in complex topographies such as the Andes

● Session 4:
  • Products and climate information: methods and tools of climate data analysis; presentation of climate products and information; products on extreme events
  • Climate services in Ibero-America: projects on climate services in Ibero-America
  • Interface with climate information users: approaches to building the interface with climate information users; experiences from exchanges with users; user requirements on climate services

Furthermore, hands-on sessions on capacity building, e-learning, the use of open-source software, and on ancestral knowledge in Ibero-America will take place during the workshop. The workshop is complemented by an additional training day on climate data homogenization and a field visit at the end of the workshop.

Organization

The Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Peru SENAMHI will organize the workshop on “Data Management for Climate Services” in close collaboration with the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss. The workshop is part of the project CLIMANDES 2 (Climate services to support decision making in the Andes) which is supported by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC and by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

For more information and to get notified when the date is known please contact: Climandes.